New York Mets: Top 20 Prospects 2013 The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of them can be found in the 2013 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often! All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change. QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS: Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases. Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all. Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower levels) turn out very well indeed. Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player. The top 20 is here, updated through January 18th, 2013: 1. Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade A+: The 2012 #1 overall pick has nothing left to prove in the minors; he just needs to go to New York and pitch. He's going to put up monster K/BB ratios and it's only a matter of time before he has 200 IP and misses bats in the majors. 2. Zach Wheeler, RHP, Grade A: Like Harvey, Wheeler's main priority was to fix his command. This was supposed to take more time, but already he's nearly back to where he was in 2011 when he had a dominant late-season cameo for the Mets. He's going to thrive as a mid-rotation starter if the command doesn't regress too far. 3. Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade A: He's been overshadowed a bit by Wheeler and Harvey, but he should also crack the majors before long and go on to have a quality career. Still just 24, his upside is pretty huge and he has a great chance of becoming an above-average starting pitcher. 4. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade A-/A: We're probably going to see two different versions of Syndergaard this year: one as a 21-year-old with little upside and another a year from now with a much higher ceiling. He probably won't be ready for the majors until 2015 at the earliest, but he's still got the talent to be a No. 2 starter. 5. Dilson Herrera, 2B, Grade A-: Once considered a sure thing as a high-OBP middle infielder with tremendous defense, he's fallen off considerably the last two seasons due to declining defense and surprising bad luck with the BABIP. But his plate discipline remains elite, even for his level and he's still just 21. 6. Wilmer Flores, INF, Grade B+/B: He's an average hitter with good defense at the hot corner, and while he lacks the power and speed that you might like from a corner guy, he's a very high-floor guy who should hit .275 with 15 HRs and 25+ steals. Still just 22 and very young for Double-A. 7. Brandon Nimmo, INF, Grade B: After putting on 40 pounds to improve his defense, he hit better than .300 at Double-A last year with 10+ homers and strong walk rates. He could certainly hit 25 homers at the major league level; he's only 20 so he's got time to grow into the body and continue adding strength. 8. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade B-: Despite the low ERA, I think he'll really struggle to keep his K rate above 7.0 as he doesn't have nearly enough command to command his sinker-curveball combo to the low zone. He has a lot of moving parts, however, and he's still only 20. Could be a No. 2 starter down the road. 9. Dominic Smith, SS, Grade B-: Very highly regarded as a shortstop prospect and one of the top defensive talents in the system; hit took a big step forward last year, but is still far from where you'd like him to be at his age. Still just 20, he could be a good player but won't be able to hit his way to the majors for a while. 10. Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade C+: He was a high-profile international signing as a 17-year-old back in 2009, and he was an instant sensation in the Arizona Rookie league in 2010 with a 1.64 ERA. That's always worth paying attention to, but has he been anything besides an arm-strength lottery ticket since? Not really, but that doesn't mean there's nothing there; he throws extremely hard, but he's never really developed the command or consistency that you'd like to see. 11. Cory Mazzoni, LHP, Grade C+: There's more upside to Mazzoni than anyone else on the list here; he's a potential high-octane mid-rotation starter who can miss bats with a plus fastball-slider combination, but injuries have limited him to just 75.2 IP over the last two seasons. I see him as being a bit underrated given his stuff. 12. Brandon Nimmo, INF, Grade C+: He's been moving up through the system quickly and seems ready for Double-A, but even then he could stand to improve his walk rate a little more, especially against better pitching. However, he'll rake with the bat for years and could hit 25 homers if everything goes right. 13. Akeel Morris, LHP, Grade C+: A two-pitch guy, Morris can miss bats and strike out guys with his fastball-slider combination, but he needs to improve his command to be able to get to the next level. He'll probably end up a reliever, so it's hard to judge him by a traditional five-inning stat line. 14. Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade C+: See above. 15. David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: He improved his strikeouts and saw his ERA climb in his first full season, although he did limit home runs thanks to playing in a hitter's park. I have his ceiling as a No. 3 starter. 16. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Grade C+: He doesn't have the pure stuff of Harvey, Wheeler or Syndergaard, but he's one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the system. His changeup is one of the best in the system, and he can be as dominant as No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but he's been more dominant as a late-inning reliever. 17. Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade C+: His K/BB rates have remained strong, but a 2.87 ERA in the Pacific Coast League is still high for a guy who throws just 82.1 IP in a year. He's had enough injury issues to be a bit scary. 18. Juan Lagares, INF, Grade C+: He's another guy who has dealt with an injury-plagued year in 2013, although he also played through an injury at Triple-A last year. For me, it's probably just a question of whether he can cut down on the Ks without sacrificing the excellent speed. He could be a very good player but he's still only 22 and has more upside than he's shown so far. 19. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Grade C+: A guy I've been watching closely for several years now, d'Arnaud went through a rough patch last year after a promotion to Triple-A but still hit well. The question is whether he can hit for enough power to keep up with the modern game at his age. He still has a ton of upside, but needs to make some adjustments to tap into it. 20. Scott Rice, RHP, Grade C+: His strikeout rates have always been off the charts, but as he got more command, his K/BB rate fell off considerably. He only made 16 starts in 2012 due to back problems. Others of note: Dillon Gee, RHP: Like I've said, with the addition of Harvey, Wheeler and Syndergaard, G