Holding on for Dear Life as the Risks of the GOP Nominee Increase Mitt Romney isn’t as strong a frontrunner as was thought six months ago, and in a crowded Republican field that often produces weak frontrunners, the field’s dynamics will likely work against Romney. Still, his fundraising advantage, combined with the general election campaign’s reliance on money, may make it difficult for Romney to fall further behind before he is finally the choice of many Republican voters. Republican primaries usually tend to produce weak candidates, and this election cycle is no different. We know very little about Perry’s fiscal conservatism, or Bachmann’s foreign policy expertise, or Paul’s civil liberties record. Many voters don’t know who Ron Paul is, or that Rick Perry went to a secluded school. And why would these candidates have anything in common with the American public? Many observers will be surprised if their candidate does not become the nominee. After all, the primaries usually do work out. Yet, they never work out this perfectly. This primary season, it may not be as good of a time to be a Republican candidate than the year 2000 when George W. Bush finally vanquished John McCain. No one knows what will happen when everyone is paying attention to the campaign, and when more serious attention to a campaign means higher stakes and higher payoffs. When voters get more serious about the campaign they are likely to start paying more attention to facts, and may take into account more factors in addition to the ones voters have considered previously. As the campaign for the Republican nomination advances, so does the competition between candidates. When it comes to voters, Romney has a commanding lead, and an even larger lead in the amount of money he has raised. But the problem with all this money is that it is expensive, and if Romney can’t get the nomination, the people who gave him that money are unlikely to just sit idly by while some other candidate takes it. Their money will go elsewhere, which will cause many Republicans to be upset. We have seen campaigns like this before. In 1988, the Democratic primary for president gave then-Governor Michael Dukakis plenty of ammunition, and when people voted for him, they felt as though they were casting a ballot for George Bush. Bush’s support for the Iraq War only made it worse for Dukakis. It is possible that we could be facing another situation like this in 2012, if Romney comes up short of the nomination. When so many people are already giving money to Romney, it will be harder for any other candidate to raise money from ordinary people. If the campaign reaches its climax, it will not be the candidates with the best political positions that are victorious, but those who attract the most money. If the Republican primary season doesn’t come out exactly as Republican primary voters expected, there will be plenty of time to sort out who they are going to support. But if it does, it is likely to bring more money into the Republican party, which means that those who fund the campaigns will be doing so more in order to be heard than in order to determine the Republican nominee. It will be a race to see who can get the most money, not the one where voters pick the candidate they like most. About The Author Matthew has been the editor and owner of The Lupos Report since 2009. He’s a political junkie with a slightly obsessive interest in the inner workings of elections and ballot referenda. After working in the voting public policy field for a number of years, he opened The Lupos Report to give a voice and perspective to taxpayers and small government activists in Wisconsin, where he’s also publishing The Watchdog Report , a quarterly publication advising fellow taxpayers on how to combat overzealous government officials and wasteful politicians. 2 Comments I wonder what will happen when Romney takes over the party? Will we see more Ron Paul type people get involved? I doubt it. But then I can’t see any of the others in there either. I’m sure Ron Paul would love to run. As long as he doesn’t win, he probably won’t run for a second term. The point I was making, and probably don’t make clear enough, is that it’s hard to build an organization with no money. Romney has plenty of money and as he does more and more of the work in the primaries, he won’t be facing much opposition from other campaigns and candidates. But that means that the people who can bring the biggest amounts of money will get the most money. Money is what drives many elections, not the people who make up the campaigns. It’s not a huge deal if the candidates don’t have any money, but it does mean that someone with the largest amount of money will be victorious over another candidate who may have better ideas but doesn’t have any money. It is not a given that Romney will be the nominee. He will face very tough competition from a few of the other candidates. So a lot can happen between now and then. For more on that, go back and reread my post. I think that Romney will be able to do just fine between now and the primary elections. The problem is that many people won’t be able to see past the fact that money is the currency of politics, and if there isn’t any money to be had, nothing will change. But as long as the money keeps flowing, I suspect it won’t affect the outcome, other than to give some of the candidates an advantage over others. My blog is no longer active, I will leave it up for the time being. You are invited to read my commentaries on my new blog site, which will replace this site in a few months. It’s called The Lupos Republic. It’s much like this site was originally, I invite you to read and contribute. Feel free to use any content from this site with attribution and a link back to the new site. Thanks for visiting, and I hope you join me for the new ride. Lupos…loving our future…and all the little things that make us who we are, Lupos. About The Author Matthew has been the editor and owner of The Lupos Report since 2009. He’s a political junkie with a slightly obsessive interest in the inner workings of elections and ballot referenda. After working in the voting public policy field for a number of years, he opened The Lupos Report to give a voice and perspective to taxpayers and small government activists in Wisconsin, where he’s also publishing The Watchdog Report , a quarterly publication advising fellow taxpayers on how to combat overzealous government officials and wasteful politicians. Luposr is a cybernated citizen of the Lupos Republic, a writer for the Trenchcoat Brigade, and a foreign agent for the Lupos Research Group, an online political intelligence agency. One Comment About The Author Matthew has been the editor and owner of The Lupos Report since 2009. He’s a political junkie with a slightly obsessive interest in the inner workings of elections and ballot referenda. After working in the voting public policy field for a number of years, he opened The Lupos Report to give a voice and perspective to taxpayers and small government activists in Wisconsin, where he’s also publishing The Watchdog Report , a quarterly publication advising fellow taxpayers on how to combat overzealous government officials and wasteful politicians. Luposr is a cybernated citizen of the Lupos Republic, a writer for the Trenchcoat Brigade, and a foreign agent for the Lupos Research Group, an online political intelligence agency.