The Penultimate Step of the War for the West: Kiev: A Power Center, Not a Conquest [Published: December 24, 2013] To the west, Russia was on the verge of losing control of Ukraine. But if I were in Kiev or Moscow, I wouldn’t be so quick to celebrate. The Ukrainian Army, with Russian-supplied aid, has retaken Slavyansk, the so-called “capital” of pro-Russian rebels in the Donbass region, and it may do the same to Luhansk. These are important facts. The Donbas was mostly a Russian-speaking area long before World War II. Ukrainians have always been the second- or third-largest ethnic group. In Soviet times, their power base was the Crimea. After that war ended in 1945, Khrushchev let them have their independence as the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, which they reaffirmed by an overwhelming vote in a 1992 referendum. But it was part of a larger Soviet project, and Khrushchev’s successor, Leonid Brezhnev, imposed Communist Party rule in the Soviet Union as a whole. It was not popular in Ukraine. The Donbas has been a focus of Russian ambitions ever since. (And a convenient one for Putin, too.) In a real sense, this makes Ukraine a prize that Russia could yet win back. It’s not so easy to fight wars with a country that’s lost its soul. It would be far easier to invade the Russian Federation, or the United States, than Ukraine, especially after decades of war in Afghanistan and Syria. Russian troops in Ukraine would likely be in for an even bloodier fight than they are now, and Kiev is unlikely to be a pushover. But so far, Putin doesn’t seem interested in finishing the job. For one thing, the war itself is getting worse, not better. His forces have been bogged down by urban guerrilla warfare in the center of the country, and the rebels in the eastern Donbas may soon be in command of the city of Kharkiv, near the Russian border. There’s also the question of Russia’s economy. It’s in crisis, especially the defense sector, and Putin could find it difficult to muster the money for a new war. That would mean he would have to pay more, and his supporters may find a new set of grievances. For years, many of Putin’s people have resented that the Russian Federation’s natural resources and energy were being plundered by the West—and so was Russia’s wealth. Putin, who promised to defend them, failed. Now it is Ukraine’s turn. This is the kind of war that no one wants. If Putin and his supporters think they’ve won, they will have to face the fact that they are about to be dragged into a civil war—and it may turn into a real one. Ukraine has an army that is battle-hardened and experienced. If Russian generals are good at their jobs, they will find a way to make them pay dearly for every inch of territory they concede. And the West must continue to punish Putin for violating international law by invading another country. If the West gets its act together, it could probably do that by using Nato as the new International Criminal Court. As bad as the situation in Ukraine is, it’s just as important for Americans and Europeans to realize that it’s not the way to advance Russian objectives. Putting another Cold War together after the Cold War has ended would be disastrous. There are plenty of important differences between Russia and the West, but there are also many issues on which we have common interests, including cooperation against terrorism. And even if the West does not trust Putin, the economic future of Europe depends on the free movement of goods and people. To allow Russia to use the threat of war to prevent the free flow of goods and people would be foolish, too. For the rest of us, Russia’s military adventures are an opportunity, not a threat. Russia today is much weaker than it was 25 years ago, and its aggressive moves are as much a symptom of that weakness as anything. It would be dangerous for Putin to see that weakness as an opportunity. With sanctions and other punitive measures—along with military moves against his oil facilities—the West could make him understand this. But, for now, Putin doesn’t seem to grasp the nature of his strategic defeat. Putin, who has been in power for 17 years, thinks he is in control of Russia. But if he can’t put down the pro-European “Maidan movement,” why does he believe that a second term would be different? Or does he? But then I’m not the only one asking that question. And I have to repeat: I still think Putin wants a fight with the West. It’s in the Russian’s DNA. If the West is not willing to fight it, Putin will find a way to make it fight. Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, at a meeting in Kiev on August 28. This article is published with permission of The Nation. It was originally published by The Huffington Post. It can be viewed here. Post navigation 4 comments for “Ukraine Is on the Brink of Defeat in a War with Russia” Rinpoche December 29, 2013 at 07:57 This will make you wonder why Putin is so aggressive to its neighbors. Look at your map carefully, and you will see that his country of Russia is the only landmass eastward from Japan and Korea, the two countries that are closest to Japan and Korea respectively. The reason is that there are a lot of resources in the area and he believes that he can get them if the powers that be do not fight him. Rinpoche December 29, 2013 at 08:13 Yes, but most of the resources are in Siberia. Putin will also want to have access to the resources of Siberia. Therefore it is more likely to make a deal with China than it is to make a deal with the west because of the latter’s political position. There will come a time when China will want to be the superpower in Asia and therefore has to do business with the Russians. The US will support China in its quest and may have to take a backseat to the situation with its allies. The future looks dim for the US. The US will probably have to get rid of its foreign policy of “No War.” Russia might also be forced to reevaluate its relationship with the US. Ahmad Raza Naqvi December 29, 2013 at 11:17 While I have some sympathy for Western point of views, the West has no moral ground to stand upon on this issue of Russia. The US has gone from being the leader of a “Pax Americana” to a “Pax Americana sans americanum”. No nation state can win any war without economic supremacy and technological supremacy. The US did not have either in Vietnam or in Afghanistan. It will certainly not have