Egypt, which suffered from its third revolution in the past year, has witnessed increasing political instability over the past month. In mid-August, several senior Brotherhood leaders were sentenced to life imprisonment and an estimated 60,000 supporters are currently imprisoned. The ruling military council is also clamping down on pro-Islamist groups. The Islamist opposition parties want to get rid of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, chief of the military council.
Yet the Islamists did not join hands with other opposition parties. Instead, they seem to be trying to find a foothold for themselves to gain the popularity needed for a new role in Egyptian society. They insist that they must be allowed to participate in the upcoming elections.
The two main Islamist movements are al-Jamaa al-Islamiya and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is said to have its roots in Egypt's 1919 Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned under the monarchy. After the fall of the monarchy, the Brotherhood developed further. The Muslim Brotherhood played a major role in the revolution against the US-backed dictator, Hosni Mubarak, in January 2011. Following that revolution, Muslim Brotherhood members took control of the Ministry of the Interior and the Cairo police.
The Brotherhood and its leader Mohamed Badie are currently under arrest. Other former ministers, including Saad el-Husseiny, as well as numerous other members of the organization, have been detained. These arrests occurred as part of a purge and purge is still underway.
Although the party has been banned and its leader is currently in jail, supporters say the party is not dead. Even after the ban, the Brotherhood continues to have a significant role in the opposition. Some groups have even called the current regime a “brotherhood regime,” suggesting they support the Islamists' return.
The Islamists also received many votes in the parliamentary elections and municipal elections, which were held during the past few months. After Egypt's interim president Mohamed Morsi was elected as the first freely elected president of Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood attempted to form a bloc. However, they were barred from participating. While the Brotherhood's political aspirations were rejected in the parliamentary and municipal elections, they have now returned.
The country’s most important opposition party is former presidential candidate Hamdin Sabahi's National Democratic Party (NDP). Sabahi is a relatively popular candidate. He was one of the most popular candidates in the 2010 parliamentary elections. He is also Egypt's third most popular candidate.
For weeks, the NDP has been calling for all party members and parliamentarians to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections, insisting it would be illegal to participate in elections held in a situation of “political confrontation.” The NDP is also calling for the dissolution of the People's Assembly. If the current parliament were to be dissolved, the NDP is expected to get about 25 percent of the votes in the upcoming elections.
A new party, al-Shaab (The Vanguard), which is not Islamist, has been formed by ex-ministers and lawyers.
These new parties formed an opposition bloc against the military council. The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest group in this coalition. The Muslim Brotherhood wants to use the upcoming elections to secure a foothold in Egyptian society. In addition, they want to gain enough votes to take over state institutions and the administration and replace the ruling generals. They know that the revolution has not had any substantial achievements, and that it was primarily an Islamist struggle.
The Islamists are worried that no concrete results are being achieved. Yet they were still able to gain a significant number of votes in the first round of the parliamentary elections.
The Muslim Brotherhood is also trying to build a base for itself, by cooperating with other groups in the opposition. This is also apparent in the NDP's decision to form an alliance with the Egyptian Socialist Party, a right-wing liberal group. The NDP and the Socialist Party aim to form a bloc of center-leftist parties. The group is not seeking to represent the Muslim Brotherhood, but instead focuses on the parliamentary elections and the current situation.
The Islamists are also concerned about the level of violence. The situation is now stable, but there are many radical Salafists who want to establish an Islamic state. Thus, despite the rise of militancy, the Islamists have decided to participate in the parliamentary elections.
The Islamists are also concerned with the lack of economic and social development. They recognize that there are some structural problems and that a transitional period will not be easy. They want to restore public services and work in order to improve the quality of life. This was also one of the goals of their revolution.
The new coalition of parties, the Democratic Alliance for Egypt (DACE), is planning to field candidates for various municipal seats in addition to the party's presidential candidate, Mohamed Anwar al-Sadat. They plan to field candidates for the next round of parliamentary elections, despite the fact that they are not supposed to participate.
It is interesting that the Islamists' only remaining hope of power is in Egypt's upcoming parliamentary elections.
The Muslim Brotherhood wants to win seats in Egypt's parliament and take part in national elections. This includes local elections and constitutional changes. There is no consensus for an Islamic constitution or Shari’a.
The Brotherhood knows it is losing its legitimacy after the military council assumed power and its former deputy chief of staff was arrested. In the early period of the military council’s rule, they tried to implement some laws that were originally part of the Mubarak regime’s constitution, such as requiring non-violent gatherings. But these new rules were implemented with a military council law, not a constitutional law. This means that the military council has adopted an unconstitutional Constitution. The laws were only temporary and will be abolished in the near future.
The Salafists are also not interested in an Islamic constitution. In fact, they are opposed to democracy. They want to turn Egypt into an Islamic state and enforce Sharia law by the year 2025.
The main Muslim Brotherhood opposition party, Gamaa al-Islamiya, has also called for an end to the transitional period. However, this is not likely to happen. The current Islamic opposition parties are not willing to work with the military council and seek to work against it. The Islamists are hoping for a return to democracy, but have no desire to restore the military council. Thus, they view the political situation as having two possibilities: either the military council continues its rule or the next president is elected in order to establish democracy.
Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, has called on the public to boycott the parliamentary elections and hold a “popular referendum.” However, this will not happen because the opposition, especially the military council, is against holding another round of elections in such a short period of time. The electoral authority has announced that the election will take place as planned on Nov. 28.
The Islamists also hope to gain power through the referendum. They realize that they cannot play a role in national politics without being represented in the parliament. Thus, they want to increase public support for their cause by giving them an opportunity to vote on a constitutional amendment.
At the end of June, President Morsi was elected by a wide margin, winning over half of the votes. As in parliamentary elections, the opposition boycotted the vote. However, more than 50 percent of voters also voted for Morsi. The Islamists took advantage of this opportunity and gained the right to form a government. The fact that no new elections have taken place means the Muslim Brotherhood still holds political power and can establish a government, although the Muslim Brotherhood does not want that situation to continue. They are trying to use the current period as a temporary measure that cannot last longer than two years. In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood is trying to show its people that it can still function through political institutions. However, the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly’s inability to pass laws is the main problem the Muslim Brotherhood faces in its rule.
Yet none of the opposition parties had any interest in forming a ruling coalition with the Muslim Brotherhood in its current situation.
The military council is not likely to change its current course. Despite a number of attempts to improve the situation, no breakthroughs have been made. On the contrary, things are getting worse every day, with the new ruling authorities failing to accomplish even the most basic goals.
Many people, particularly the young people who have been educated abroad, are frustrated by the slow pace of change. Despite the fact that there has been major progress since the revolution, most of the youth cannot believe it. They have lost their confidence in the Egyptian government.
President Morsi will not be able to continue his rule for very long, if he stays in power. However, many of the opposition parties are trying to work with the new president. Yet Morsi seems determined to be Egypt's only president, even though he is aware of the fact that the military council and Egypt's courts will prevent him from returning to power. Even if he is able to reestablish himself, it is still unclear whether he will be able to form a coalition. Thus, Morsi is trying to secure power through the Islamists by forming a coalition to which the secular opposition will not join, leaving the Muslim Brotherhood to form a government. The new coalition will include the Islamic fundamentalists.
The Islamists must understand that Egyptians will never accept them as long as they do not represent most of Egypt's political groups. It is obvious that the Muslim Brotherhood only represents about one percent of the Egyptian
